Brent Crude & the Israel-Iran War
The Price Shock at a Glance
╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ BRENT CRUDE OIL 2025–2026 ║
║ ║
║ $150 ┤ ╭ Dubai $152 ║
║ $140 ┤ ║
║ $130 ┤ ║
║ $120 ┤ ██ ← Brent ~$120 ║
║ $110 ┤ ███ ██ $110 ║
║ $100 ┤ ████ ██ ← today ║
║ $90 ┤ ██ $102 ║
║ $80 ┤ ████████ ███ ║
║ $70 ┤ █████████ ██ ║
║ $60 ┤ ████ ║
║ $50 ┤ ║
║ └──┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──── ║
║ 01/25 03/25 06/25 09/25 12/25 02/26 03/26 ║
║ ↑ ↑ ↑ ║
║ "12-Day War" Hormuz South Pars ║
║ closed strike ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝Conflict Timeline
Phase 1 — Escalation Build-Up (2024)
APRIL 2024 — First Direct Exchange
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Iran launched ~300 drones and missiles at Israel on April 13,
the first direct Iranian attack on Israeli soil. Israel
responded with limited strikes on April 19.
Oil impact: Brent briefly spiked above $90, then settled
back as markets assessed limited supply disruption.
OCTOBER 2024 — Second Round
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Israel struck Iranian military targets on October 26 in
response to Iranian missile attacks. Both sides signaled
restraint through back-channels.
Oil impact: Brent ~$75, short-lived volatility. Markets
priced in "managed escalation" — no sustained premium.Phase 2 — The “Twelve-Day War” (June 2025)
JUNE 13–25, 2025 — Operation Against Nuclear Sites
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Israel and the US launched coordinated strikes targeting
Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic missile programme.
The operation lasted 12 days.
Oil impact: Brent surged from ~$65 to low $80s.
Markets quickly retraced once it became clear that
Iran's oil infrastructure was NOT targeted and supply
remained intact.
┌──────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Brent: $65 → $80+ → retreat to ~$72 │
│ Duration of price shock: ~2 weeks │
│ Key lesson: no supply hit = no premium │
└──────────────────────────────────────────┘Phase 3 — Full-Scale War (Feb–Mar 2026)
FEBRUARY 27, 2026 — The Day Before
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi announced a
"breakthrough" — Iran had agreed to never stockpile
enriched uranium and to full IAEA verification.
Al-Busaidi said peace was "within reach."
24 hours later, the bombs fell.
FEBRUARY 28, 2026 — Operation Epic Fury
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
20:38 UTC US President Trump gave the order to proceed
06:35 UTC CENTCOM announced airstrikes had begun
06:45 UTC Israeli Air Force launched decapitation strikes
Targets hit:
• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — killed along with
his daughter, son-in-law, grandchild, and
daughter-in-law Zahra Haddad-Adel
• Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh — killed
• IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour — killed
• Defence Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani — killed
• 4 top Ministry of Intelligence officials — killed
• Nuclear facilities and military sites across Iran
Oil impact: Brent +13% in first session → $82
WTI +8% → $72
MARCH 1, 2026 — Iran Strikes Back
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel, US bases,
and facilities across at least 9 Gulf countries.
By March 5, Iran had fired:
• 500+ ballistic and naval missiles
• ~2,000 drones
• ~40% aimed at Israel, ~60% at US regional targets
Oil tanker "Skylight" struck by projectile north of
Khasab, Oman — 2 Indian crew members killed, 3 injured.
Oil tanker "Sonangol Namibe" hit by sea drone near
Kuwait — 800km from the Strait. Conflict expanding.
MARCH 2, 2026 — Hezbollah Joins
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Hezbollah launched missiles and drones into Israel.
Israel escalated air strikes reaching southern Beirut.
Multi-front war now active:
Israel ↔ Iran, Israel ↔ Hezbollah, Iran → Gulf states
MARCH 4, 2026 — Hormuz Strait Declared Closed
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
IRGC transmitted warnings via VHF radio:
"No ships will be permitted to pass."
On March 5, IRGC clarified: closure applies to ships
from US, Israel, and "their Western allies."
In practice: de facto total blockade. War-risk insurance
premiums made transit economically impossible for all.
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ BEFORE: 100+ tankers transiting daily │
│ AFTER: 21 tankers total since Feb 28 │
│ │
│ Traffic reduction: ~97% │
│ IEA: "Largest supply disruption in history │
│ of the global oil market" │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
MARCH 6, 2026 — Tugboat Sunk
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
A tugboat dispatched to assist the damaged tanker
"Safeen Prestige" was struck by two missiles and sank.
At least 3 crew members missing.
MARCH 7, 2026 — Civilian Toll Reported
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Iranian Red Crescent reported US-Israeli strikes hit:
• 5,535 residential units
• 1,041 commercial units
• 14 medical centres
• 65 schools
• 13 Red Crescent centres
Total: 6,668+ civilian structures targeted
MARCH 9, 2026 — Record-Breaking Week
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
WTI posted its biggest weekly gain in history: +35.6%
Brent broke through $108.20
This single week erased 18 months of oil price declines.
MARCH 11, 2026 — War at Sea Continues
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Thai-flagged vessel "Mayuree Naree" struck by projectile.
Drones hit fuel storage in Duqm and Salalah (Oman).
GPS jamming reported across the Gulf — ships navigating
by radar only.
MARCH 17, 2026 — Assassination of Ali Larijani
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Israel killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's
Supreme National Security Council.
Third major political assassination since Feb 28.
MARCH 18, 2026 — South Pars & Ras Laffan
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Israel struck South Pars — Iran's largest natural gas
field (shared with Qatar). Brent spiked 5% → $110.
Iran retaliated the same day, hitting Ras Laffan in
Qatar with missiles:
• Pearl Gas-to-Liquids facility damaged
• LNG export terminals hit
• Qatar — world's top LNG exporter — now impacted
Iran's new supreme leader vowed to keep Hormuz closed.
MARCH 24, 2026 — Today
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Brent: $102.47/barrel
WTI: ~$96
Volatility remains extreme.
Trump extended deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz.The Strait of Hormuz — World’s Oil Chokepoint
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
┌──────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 21 miles wide │
IRAN │ ═══════════════════════► │ PERSIAN
│ 20 million barrels/day │ GULF
│ 20% of global oil traffic │
│ ═══════════════════════► │
│ ███ BLOCKADE ███ │
OMAN │ │
└──────────────────────────────────────┘
What flows through Hormuz:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Oil: 20 million barrels per day │
│ LNG: 110 billion cubic meters per year │
│ Ships: 100+ tankers daily (before war) │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
How Iran enforces the blockade:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ • VHF radio warnings to all vessels │
│ • Anti-ship missiles launched at tankers │
│ • Sea drone attacks (up to 800km range) │
│ • GPS jamming across the Gulf │
│ • Mine threats (unconfirmed) │
│ • War-risk insurance now prohibitive │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Result:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ BEFORE blockade: 100+ ships/day │
│ AFTER blockade: 21 ships total in 24 days │
│ Reduction: ~97% │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘Oil Prices — The Numbers
╔════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ CRISIS IN NUMBERS ║
╠════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ ║
║ BRENT CRUDE ║
║ ───────────────────────────────────────── ║
║ Pre-war baseline (Jan 2026) ~$60/bbl ║
║ First day of war (Feb 28) $82/bbl (+13%) ║
║ Record week close (Mar 9) $108/bbl ║
║ South Pars strike (Mar 18) $110/bbl ║
║ Peak ~$120/bbl (+80%) ║
║ Today (Mar 24) $102.47/bbl ║
║ ║
║ OTHER BENCHMARKS ║
║ ───────────────────────────────────────── ║
║ WTI (US) ~$96/bbl ║
║ Dubai crude (Asia) $150+ (all-time high) ║
║ Oman crude $152/bbl ║
║ ║
║ HISTORIC SPREADS ║
║ ───────────────────────────────────────── ║
║ WTI–Dubai spread $50+ (unprecedented) ║
║ WTI record weekly gain +35.6% (all-time) ║
║ ║
║ LNG PRICES ║
║ ───────────────────────────────────────── ║
║ Asia LNG +54% in one week ║
║ Europe LNG +63% in one week ║
║ ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝Who Gets Hit Hardest
DEPENDENCE ON MIDDLE EASTERN OIL
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Japan ████████████████████████████░░ 90%
90% of crude oil imports from Middle East
Near-total dependence on Hormuz transit
South Korea ██████████████████████░░░░░░░░ 70%
70% of crude from Middle East
Refining sector facing feedstock crisis
India ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░ 65%
Major importer of Iranian & Gulf crude
Rupee under pressure from energy costs
Europe ██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~45%
LNG prices surged 63% in one week
Gas storage drawdowns accelerating
China ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~40%
Largest buyer of Iranian crude
Strategic reserves being tapped
USA ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~25%
WTI at $96, but historic $50+ spread to Dubai
Gasoline prices rising at the pumpOPEC+ Response
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ OPEC+ EMERGENCY MEETING │
│ March 1, 2026 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ Decision: Raise output by 206,000 barrels/day │
│ (debated range was 137,000 to 548,000 bpd) │
│ │
│ Problem: │
│ ┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ • Most OPEC+ members have NO spare capacity │ │
│ │ • Only Saudi Arabia and UAE can meaningfully │ │
│ │ increase production │ │
│ │ • But both Saudi and UAE export through the │ │
│ │ Persian Gulf → Hormuz is blocked │ │
│ │ • Extra production is useless if you can't │ │
│ │ ship it out │ │
│ └───────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
│ Result: Market shrugged off the increase. │
│ Brent still closed at $82 that day (+13%). │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Emergency Reserves Deployed
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ GLOBAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ IEA Emergency Release │
│ ───────────────────── │
│ 400 million barrels — largest release in IEA history │
│ Coordinated across 31 member countries │
│ Previous record: 60M barrels (2011 Libya crisis) │
│ │
│ US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) │
│ ──────────────────────────────────── │
│ 172 million barrels over 120 days │
│ SPR was already at historic lows (~350M barrels) │
│ after 2022 drawdowns │
│ │
│ Central Bank Response │
│ ───────────────────── │
│ Federal Reserve: rates frozen │
│ "The Iran situation puts the Fed on hold" │
│ — Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen │
│ │
│ Nomura: "The conflict solidifies the case for │
│ central banks to hold rates steady" │
│ │
│ ┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ Bottom line: 400M barrels of reserves released │ │
│ │ and prices are STILL above $100. │ │
│ │ The reserves are not enough. │ │
│ └───────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Key Takeaways
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ 1. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS EVERYTHING │
│ 20% of global oil flows through a 21-mile gap. │
│ When it closes, nothing else matters — not │
│ reserves, not OPEC+ increases, not diplomacy. │
│ │
│ 2. ASIA IS THE BIGGEST VICTIM │
│ Japan (90%), South Korea (70%), India (65%) are │
│ critically dependent on Gulf oil. Dubai crude hit │
│ an all-time high above $150. The $50+ spread │
│ between WTI and Dubai is unprecedented. │
│ │
│ 3. STRATEGIC RESERVES AREN'T ENOUGH │
│ The largest IEA release ever (400M barrels) plus │
│ 172M from US SPR have failed to bring prices │
│ below $100. The disruption is simply too large. │
│ │
│ 4. LNG MARKETS HIT SIMULTANEOUSLY │
│ The strike on Ras Laffan (Qatar) and Hormuz │
│ closure disrupted 110 bcm/year of LNG exports. │
│ Asia LNG +54%, Europe LNG +63% in a single week. │
│ │
│ 5. THE WAR PREMIUM IS REAL │
│ Brent went from $60 to $120 — a +80% surge │
│ driven entirely by geopolitical risk, not │
│ supply-demand fundamentals. │
│ │
│ 6. OPEC+ IS POWERLESS │
│ Even with spare capacity, Gulf producers can't │
│ export through a closed strait. The 206K bpd │
│ increase was symbolic at best. │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Data current as of March 24, 2026. Situation is rapidly evolving.
Sources: Fortune, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, CNBC, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, World Economic Forum, Oxford Economics, Wikipedia, UK Parliament, IEA, Euronews, Military.com